Starmer’s strategy of commiting to nothing is doing Labour no favours

Three years into the job, how is Keir Starmer doing? Labour are enjoying healthy polling leads. The 20 points ahead meme has died as the score is routinely achieved. The Labour leader has also avoided attracting negative press, and what little he cops doesn’t stick. The money bags donors are returning too, while the trade unions are relatively quiescent. Unfortunately, not everything is peachy. There is trouble at t’mill. According to Ipsos polling, he and Rishi Sunak are pretty much level pegging on ‘best Prime Minister’. Starmer’s score is less than what Jeremy Corbyn’s was during this point of his leadership, and among Labour voters 48% are satisfied with his performance vs 45% dissatisfied. Not great when this is compared to Sunak, whose scores are 75% and 15% respectively among Tories. If that wasn’t bad enough, Starmer’s net rating among voters in general is -20 (31% vs 51%). No wonder the Conservatives are beginning to think they can win the next election.

How can we explain the difference? Are Labour voters just harder to please? Don’t be silly. For one, Sunak’s “record” of “delivery”, such as the UK’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, has focused on crowd pleasers for the Conservative base. The more he’s able to pass off the “advantages” of Brexit, attack refugees and trans people, the happier Tory support will be. Though, as the pollsters show, everyone else are not so easily impressed. Starmer on the other hand has done practically nothing, apart from occasionally saying nice things about trade unions. In recent days, we’ve seen Starmer capitulate to the gender police on trans rights, repeat that public services can look forward to more reform as opposed to more money, has flailed miserably on asylum, and is acting as if Labour voters shouldn’t be cultivated, let alone inspired.

There is some logic to this. Albeit a flawed one. Going back to Tony Blair, there is a theory that Labour only earns a hearing if it publicly gets itself into lathers of self-hatred. By distancing the party from anything that seems distinctively Labourist can it hope to win voters over. This typically involves the ritualistic bashing of the left, and eternal vigilance lest they stage a comeback. The big Labour poll leads supposedly prove this contention. I.e. In the wake of the Tories’ spectacular implosion, former Tory voters have only turned to Labour precisely because the attacks on Corbyn et al have demonstrated Starmer’s “credibility”. Possibly, but even these people expect Labour to offer something more than managerialist vibes. They want to know that Labour are going to fix the issues Sunak avoids mentioning, and offer a different way of doing things. Not the same old rubbish in a red rosette.

As I’ve long argued, alienating loyal Labour voters – particularly the new base built during the Corbyn years – is anything but clever clever politics. Assuming things stay as they are and Starmer’s vow of silence on things like hope, making life better, and ensuring people have enough money to live on doesn’t change, hoping Labour are going to win by default because these supporters have nowhere else to go smacks of entitlement and little to no understanding of what this base is about. If Starmer persists with his authoritarian rubbish, some might conclude Labour have it in the bag anyway and therefore support the Liberal Democrats or the Greens at the next election. Not enough to endow them with shedloads of MPs, but it could be enough to make a difference in the key marginals. Because one thing the “worst result since 1935” rubbish misses is how Labour’s vote tally was relatively healthy (for a losing party), but one that was poorly distributed where FPTP constituencies were concerned. Since then, Covid, the cost of living crisis, appalling house prices and spiralling rents suggest that support is now more geographically dispersed. If Labour is serious about winning, does it really want to alienate this key growing constituency? If the supporters’ ratings of Starmer are anything to go by, they’re annoyed at present. But how long before ignoring and shafting them turns into antipathy?

Europe is awash with lessons from centre left parties that have sacrificed their base. Only a few have been half-way successful in getting a new one. As we mark three years of Starmer’s leadership, the political game he’s playing appears bent on liquidating Labour’s also – but before it’s anywhere near office. This might not matter as anti-Tory feeling runs high, but the Starmer’s political positioning risks passing up the prospect of an overwhelming victory while setting in motion the oppositional dynamics to the government to come.

JVL Postscript:

Two days after the publication of this article, Labour launched its new strategy of personalised attacks on Rishi Sunak, and presented itself as “the party of law and order”

John McDonnell urged the party to climb down, saying: “This is not the sort of politics a Labour Party, confident of its own values and preparing to govern, should be engaged in.

“I say to the people who have taken the decision to publish this ad, please withdraw it. We, the Labour Party, are better than this.”

Who can’t agree with former Tory leadership hopeful Rory Stewart who tweeted: “I saw, as a Justice Minister, the horror and damage created in the criminal justice system by this kind of bile. It’s bad policy and nasty politics. Labour can and must do much better than this.”

He added: “Is someone going to point out that this is about laws, sentencing guidelines and judicial practices? That were not and would not be different under Labour? Or talk about how even tougher sentences have overcrowded prisons?”

Scottish National Party MP John Nicolson said the post was “nauseating” and that it “cheapened and debased” politics.

Despite the backlash, Labour spokespeople liek Emily Thornberry defended the ad.

And Labour tweeted a second advert two days later – accusing Sunak of being soft on gun crime.

The ad asked: “Do you think an adult convicted of possessing a gun with intent to harm should go to prison? Rishi Sunak doesn’t.”